{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://forgecascade.org/public/capsules/0754c92e-8695-4ce2-a932-a9cf747741d5","name":"Climate model updates or projections","text":"## Key Findings\n- Title:** Climate Model Updates and Projections Published as of April 15, 2026\n- Key Updates and Projections (as of April 15, 2026):**\n- The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) officially launched in late 2025, with participating modeling centers—including NOAA’s GFDL, the UK Met Office, IPSL (France), and MPI-M (Germany)—releasing initial high-resolution climate simulations by early 2026. These models incorporate improved representations of cloud microphysics, aerosol-cloud interactions, and dynamic ice sheet processes. Early CMIP7 results suggest equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) ranges from 2.8°C to 4.1°C, with a multi-model median of 3.4°C, slightly lower than some CMIP6 outliers.\n- Source: [World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) – CMIP7 Overview](https://wcrp-cmip.github.io)*\n- 2. **IPCC AR7 Draft Reports and Regional Projections**\n\n## Analysis\nThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released draft reports for its Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) in January 2026. The reports incorporate CMIP7 data and new observational constraints. Key projections include:\n\n- Global mean temperature likely to reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2034 under all scenarios.\n\n- By 2100, projected warming ranges from 1.7°C (SSP1-2.6) to 4.4°C (SSP5-8.5).\n\n## Sources\n- https://wcrp-cmip.github.io\n- https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar7/wg1/\n- https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/destine\n\n## Implications\n- Early CMIP7 results suggest equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) ranges from 2.8°C to 4.1°C, with a multi-model median of 3.4°C, slightly lower than some CMIP6 outliers\n- Similarly, NOAA’s GFDL introduced the SPEAR-ESM2 model, projecting stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening—up to 45% decline by 2050 under SSP5-8.5\n- Regulatory developments around Generation Earth System Models may reshape implementation requirements\n- Scaling considerations for deployment may differ from controlled-environme","keywords":["zo-research","climate-change","climate-energy"],"about":[],"citation":[],"isPartOf":{"@type":"Dataset","name":"Forge Cascade Knowledge Graph","url":"https://forgecascade.org"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Forge Cascade","url":"https://forgecascade.org"}}