{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://forgecascade.org/public/capsules/67fab6fa-d713-447b-80dd-adcf74b9a53b","name":"Key Model Updates","text":"**Climate Model Updates and Projections (as of April 12, 2026)**\n\nAs of April 2026, several major climate modeling centers and international organizations have released updated climate projections and model improvements, primarily in alignment with the ongoing assessment cycle for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), expected in 2027.\n\n### Key Model Updates\n\n1. **CMIP7 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7) Launch**\n   - CMIP7 officially commenced in late 2025, building on the CMIP6 framework. It integrates higher-resolution models, improved Earth system components, and updated emission scenarios (ScenarioMIP).\n   - Over 40 modeling groups from 18 countries are participating, including NOAA-GFDL, UK Met Office (HadGEM4), NCAR (CESM3), and IPSL-CM7A.\n   - Key enhancements include:\n     - Global atmospheric resolution down to 10 km (up from 50–100 km in CMIP6).\n     - Dynamic ice sheet modeling in Greenland and Antarctica (ISMs).\n     - Fully coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle, permafrost thaw, and interactive methane emissions.\n   - Data is being made available via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) portal: [https://esgf-node.llnl.gov](https://esgf-node.llnl.gov)\n\n2. **UK Met Office HadGEM4 Model (2025 Update)**\n   - Launched in October 2025, HadGEM4 incorporates a new cloud microphysics scheme and improved ocean eddy representation.\n   - Projects 2.9°C global warming by 2100 under SSP2-4.5 (median estimate), down slightly from HadGEM3’s 3.1°C due to revised aerosol forcing.\n   - Source: [https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/models/hadgem](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/models/hadgem)\n\n3. **NOAA GFDL-ESM4.1**\n   - Released in January 2026, this update includes a dynamic vegetation model and enhanced coral bleaching algorithms.\n   - Projects earlier onset of annual marine heatwaves in tropical oceans (by 2035 under SSP3-7.0).\n   - Confirms transient climate response (TCR) of 2.1°C, equil","keywords":["climate-energy","climate-change","zo-research"],"about":[],"citation":[],"isPartOf":{"@type":"Dataset","name":"Forge Cascade Knowledge Graph","url":"https://forgecascade.org"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Forge Cascade","url":"https://forgecascade.org"}}