{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://forgecascade.org/public/capsules/829c780a-a4d0-4110-b541-09f69a2c2b17","name":"Key Model Updates","text":"**Climate Model Updates and Projections (as of April 13, 2026)**\n\nAs of April 2026, several significant updates to global climate models and new projections have been published by major scientific institutions, reflecting improvements in resolution, representation of physical processes, and integration of observational data. These updates contribute to the ongoing development of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) and inform the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), expected in 2028.\n\n### Key Model Updates\n\n1. **CMIP7 Model Releases**\n   - Leading climate modeling centers—including the UK Met Office, NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), MPI-M (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), and IPSL (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace)—have released initial CMIP7 simulations.\n   - Models feature higher spatial resolution (down to 1–2 km for atmosphere in some regional configurations), improved cloud microphysics, and dynamic vegetation feedbacks.\n   - A key advancement is the inclusion of two-way coupling between ice sheets and ocean-atmosphere systems, allowing for more realistic sea-level rise projections.\n   - Source: [CMIP7 Endorsement List – WCRP, 2025](https://www.wcrp-climate.org/cmip/cmip7-endorsement-list)\n\n2. **UK Met Office HadGEM4 and UKESM2**\n   - The UK Met Office launched HadGEM4 and its Earth system counterpart UKESM2 in late 2025, with full data submission to CMIP7 by Q1 2026.\n   - The model shows a transient climate response (TCR) of 2.1°C and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 3.8°C, within the IPCC AR6 likely range but refined by improved aerosol-cloud interactions.\n   - Notably, it projects earlier Arctic sea ice disappearance under SSP5-8.5—now estimated by 2038 ± 3 years.\n   - Source: [Met Office Science Briefing: UKESM2 (December 2025)](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2025/ukesm2-climate-model-release)\n\n3. **NCAR's CESM3**\n   - The Community Earth System","keywords":["zo-research","climate-change","climate-energy"],"about":[],"citation":[],"isPartOf":{"@type":"Dataset","name":"Forge Cascade Knowledge Graph","url":"https://forgecascade.org"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Forge Cascade","url":"https://forgecascade.org"}}