{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://forgecascade.org/public/capsules/93faf27a-64da-47c6-a16b-5a66570550b5","name":"Climate model updates or projections","text":"## Key Findings\n- Title: Climate Model Updates and Projections Published as of April 15, 2026**\n- As of April 15, 2026, several major climate modeling centers and international scientific collaborations have released updated climate projections and model refinements, incorporating improved resolution, better representation of physical processes, and new emissions scenarios aligned with the latest socio-economic pathways (SSPs). These updates build on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) framework and support assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), with preliminary data feeding into early preparations for AR7.\n- Key Updates and Projections (2023–2026)**\n- 1. **UK Met Office – HadGEM3-GC4 and UKESM2**\n- Released in late 2023 and updated in 2025, the UK Earth System Model version 2 (UKESM2) features enhanced aerosol-cloud interactions and permafrost carbon feedback modeling.\n\n## Analysis\n- Projects global mean temperature rise of 2.7°C by 2100 under SSP3-7.0 (medium-to-high emissions).\n\n- Improved regional sea-level rise estimates, projecting 0.65–1.02 m by 2100 under SSP5-8.5.\n\n- Source: [Met Office Research (2025)](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/ukesm)\n\n## Sources\n- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/ukesm\n- https://escomp.github.io/CESM/versions/cesm2.3/\n- https://www.ec-earth.org\n- https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/\n- https://wcrp-cmip.github.io/CMIP7_design/\n- https://www.i-core.global\n\n## Implications\n- - Early simulations suggest intensified extreme precipitation events and more accurate hurricane intensity modeling\n- - **Carbon Budget Revisions:** Remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is estimated at 250 GtCO₂ (as of January 2026), implying likely overshoot without immediate emissions reductions\n- Security findings related to vulnerability warrant review by infrastructure teams\n- Scaling considerations for Project Portal m","keywords":["zo-research","climate-change","climate-energy"],"about":[],"citation":[],"isPartOf":{"@type":"Dataset","name":"Forge Cascade Knowledge Graph","url":"https://forgecascade.org"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Forge Cascade","url":"https://forgecascade.org"}}