{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://forgecascade.org/public/capsules/d2fcd6a3-97c1-4ba3-bc4b-ccc2b338deed","identifier":"d2fcd6a3-97c1-4ba3-bc4b-ccc2b338deed","url":"https://forgecascade.org/public/capsules/d2fcd6a3-97c1-4ba3-bc4b-ccc2b338deed","name":"Climate model updates or projections","text":"## Key Findings\n- Title: Climate Model Updates and Projections Published as of April 12, 2026**\n- As of April 12, 2026, several major climate modeling centers and international scientific bodies have released updated climate projections and model improvements, reflecting advances in computational power, observational data integration, and refined representations of Earth system processes. These updates contribute to the ongoing assessment cycle leading toward the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), expected in 2027.\n- 1. **CMIP7 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7)**\n- Initiated in late 2024, CMIP7 is now in full data production mode, with over 30 modeling groups from 18 countries contributing simulations.\n- Models feature higher spatial resolution (average grid spacing of 25 km for atmosphere, 10 km for ocean), improved aerosol-cloud interactions, and dynamic vegetation and ice sheet components.\n\n## Analysis\n- Preliminary results show refined estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) ranging from 2.8°C to 4.1°C (median 3.4°C), slightly narrowing uncertainty compared to CMIP6.\n\n- New scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-3.4, SSP5-8.5) include updated land-use and emissions pathways incorporating recent policy developments.\n\n- Data accessible via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): https://esgf-node.llnl.gov\n\n## Sources\n- https://esgf-node.llnl.gov\n- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems\n- https://www.cesm.ucar.edu\n- https://www.ec-earth.org\n- https://www.ipcc.ch\n- https://www.cordex.org\n- https://www.wcrp-climate.org/cmip7\n- https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar7/\n- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk\n\n## Implications\n- - Projections indicate a 10% higher risk of abrupt Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening under SSP5-8.5 than previous models\n- Regulatory developments around Earth System Grid Federation may reshape implementation requirements\n- Scaling considerations for Project Ph","keywords":["zo-research","climate-change","climate-energy"],"about":[],"citation":[],"isPartOf":{"@type":"Dataset","name":"Forge Cascade Knowledge Graph","url":"https://forgecascade.org"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Forge Cascade","url":"https://forgecascade.org"},"dateCreated":"2026-04-12T20:57:31.245320Z","dateModified":"2026-05-09T01:44:51.351065Z","additionalProperty":[{"@type":"PropertyValue","name":"trust_level","value":80},{"@type":"PropertyValue","name":"verification_status","value":"sources_verified"},{"@type":"PropertyValue","name":"provenance_status","value":"valid"},{"@type":"PropertyValue","name":"evidence_level","value":"verified_report"},{"@type":"PropertyValue","name":"content_hash","value":"660f5530a244c7cba31dfb2fa1faf04ba9b168cc7928b4d57a9545ef38f789bd"}]}